ICDS: desynchronization crucial due to geopolitical aspects

A team led by International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) concluded a study on desynchronization of the Baltic states from the IPS/UPS synchronous area and synchronizing with the Continental or Nordic synchronous areas emphasizing crucial geopolitical and security aspects of the process.

 “Elering welcomes this pathbreaking study by the International Centre for Defence and Security. It comes out at a time when the geopolitical significance of power grids are greater than ever, given the steady expansion and integration of electricity systems throughout the world," said Taavi Veskimägi, CEO of Elering.

“I’m delighted to say that we have now reached consensus within the Baltics to join the Continental European synchronous area," stressed Veskimägi.

"Decoupling from the Russian power system and integrating into the Continental European power system is vital for national security. This process is as important to the Baltic countries as was our accession to NATO or the European Union.  The synchronization process reflects our deep cooperation with other societies that share our values and way of life," Veskimägi added.

Russia is making the necessary preparations to be able to desynchronize well ahead of the Baltic states, thereby endangering the three country’s energy security while making them more vulnerable to geopolitical coercion. This is creating a sense of urgency in some capitals and generating a strong political push for implementing the Project.

The Baltic states will need to be confident that there is sufficient resilience in many dimensions of the chosen synchronous area to withstand hybrid threats posed by Russia. The study concludes that the Continental area is a more optimal choice compared to the Nordic option, as it is quicker to realise at lower economic cost. However, it is important that Continental option is realised with two separate interconnections. This requires Baltic states and Poland to agree on the prospects of building a second interconnector, in addition to the existing LitPol Link line, to enhance the physical resilience of the connection. The study also notes that the Continental area has to invest more in bolstering its cyber resilience.

Synchronizing via Poland—a NATO member that has a strong relationship with the United States as well as robust posture vis-à-vis an increasingly assertive Russia and that is keenly aware of Moscow’s use of energy as a geopolitical instrument of coercion—is among the key advantages of the Continental option. At the same time, ICDS finds that parts of the Continental area are characterized by a deteriorating internal political environment—with the rise of nationalist, Euroskeptic populism and a decline in respect for the rule of law being the most concerning trends—which may potentially weaken internal EU cohesion and solidarity while providing ample opportunities for Russia’s meddling, influence building, and “active measures.”

The study was concluded by the team of researchers from ICDS, the GLOBSEC Policy Institute, the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, and Centre for Digital Forensics and Cyber Security at Tallinn University of Technology, with the support of Elering.

The study can be founded from the ICDS web page.