Elering launched a gas consumption study to plan the future of the gas network

Elering has signed a contract with the consulting company Civitta to carry out a study of long-term gas consumption in Estonia. The study will set out gas consumption forecasts until 2050 and will provide input for long-term planning of the gas transmission network, coordination of integrated gas market developments and subsequent energy system analyses. The study is scheduled for completion in the end of this year.

Based on the analysis, it will be possible to estimate how much and at what pace gas consumption will change in different network regions and what investments are needed in the gas transmission system to secure consumption. Over the last 15 years, gas consumption in Estonia has fallen by more than 65 percent, from 10 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2008 to 3.4 TWh in 2023.

Reigo Kebja, Member of the Management Board at Elering, pointed out that, if the current pace of investment in repairs continues, the physical lifetime of the existing gas transmission network will last until approximately 2040, which is the same time when the state is taking on greater ambitions in relation to the decarbonisation of electricity and heat. “This means that the lifetime of the gas network needs to be managed in the most sensible and optimal way from the viewpoint of its cost to society, which is why the results of this study are very important,” emphasised Kebja. “At the same time, gas-based energy carriers are likely to become an important support for the security of supply of the electricity system in the near future, which may require maintaining gas infrastructure capacities for longer than the current physical lifetime forecast indicates.”.

The last similar study was carried out three years ago, but in the meantime, the natural gas supply chain has completely changed and a number of national and European laws have been adopted and are in the process of being adopted, which could potentially change the gas consumption forecast. Long-term change in consumption is mainly driven by the development of natural gas, biomethane and synthetic gases as energy carriers, including the ability to compete with other fuels and energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen, and by European and Estonian climate policy targets.

Elering will also involve market participants in the study, including large Estonian consumers and their representative organisations, interest groups, network companies and potential market participants, with whom interviews will be conducted.

The duty of Elering as the Estonian electricity and gas system operator is to ensure the security of supply of the electricity and gas system, supporting European and Estonian climate policy targets and doing so in a way that supports the competitiveness of the Estonian economy.