Elering Published an Analysis of the Development of Electricity Production in Estonia 2030+

The analysis of long-term electricity production scenarios in Estonia was published in the series of Elering publications in cooperation with Tallinn University of Technology and Danish consulting company Ea Energy Analyses.

The survey covers different scenarios of electricity production in Estonia until 2030, with a vision until 2050. The objective of the study was to model various development scenarios of power management for the new development plan of Estonian energy management 2030+.

The modelled scenarios confirm that reliability of supply is ensured to Estonian consumers for a long term through the combined effect of local production and transmission capacities. Maintaining the requirement of the availability of 110% local production capacity for Estonian peak consumption after 2024 will add approximately six euros to the price of every consumed megawatt-hour.

The analysis predicts the decrease of the role of energy costs in the budget of Estonian households in the future. According to the forecast, the increase of energy costs will remain lower than the increase of living standards resulting from economic growth in Estonia.

Production subsidies are necessary only in case of scenarios where import possibilities are not taken into account in supplying electricity to the consumers. When import possibilities are taken into account, reliability of supply can be ensured to the consumers even in case of the most complicated power system failures by having approximately 1000 MW production capacity available in Estonia at any given moment.

If the current plans are realised, electrical connections of Estonia with other countries will be sufficient until 2035, ensuring supply to the consumers. Afterwards, the establishment of additional transmission capacities between Estonia and Finland will become socio-economically rational, depending on the scenario.

The cost price of production in new power plants is significantly higher than the current market prices of electricity, falling within the range 50–70 euros per megawatt-hour and in case of condensation power plants, 70–100 euros per megawatt-hour.

The detailed analysis is available here.