Elering: consumers are guaranteed security of supply of electricity even in crisis scenarios

The Elering Security of Supply Report for 2019 shows that through a combination of generating capacities and connections, Estonian consumers will be guaranteed security of supply until at least 2025 and that in the unlikely event that crisis scenarios become realized, the capability of the electricity system is sufficient for coping in complicated conditions for at least the next 10 years.

According to chairman of the management board of Elering, Taavi Veskimägi, the security of supply for Estonian consumers is assessed based on a combination of domestic production capacities and external connections. Based on the Mid-term Adequacy Forecast (MAF) issued by European TSOs, Estonia will have guaranteed security of supply until 2025. “Somewhere in Europe, there is a power plant and the wires are thick enough for the electricity to reach Estonia. Even in the most conservative scenario, if Narva were left with only 660 MW of power generating capacity, Estonia‘s security of supply would meet the standards widespread in Europe. The Estonian electricity system has long been more than just oil shale fired power plants in Narva,” said Veskimägi.

Under the recently approved Clean Energy Package, a new pan-European analysis electricity security of supply will be prepared in the second half of next year. Should it emerge from the analysis that the possible number of hours where there is a shortage of even one megawatt in respect to what is needed to ensure the security of supply standard to be established, Veskimägi says this will require the consideration of additional investments into flexible resources such as controllable generating capacities, controllable consumption, or storage capacities.

Elering does not foresee any likely event that would lead to the collapse of the European electricity system and the market. Nevertheless, we will, in addition to the ordinary pan-European production and network adequacy analysis, be looking at additional security of supply scenarios in Estonia if anything unlikely should happen, and we will prepare the Estonian electricity system for coping with such scenarios. The situations analysed are the premature and uncoordinated separation of the Baltics from the Russian synchronous area, the loss of all Western electrical connections and, as the most severe situation, the complete isolation of the Estonian electricity system from all neighbouring countries. In the case of all of the above scenarios, security of supply will be guaranteed until 2029 in the extent agreed between the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, the Ministry of the Interior and the Competition Authority.

In order to perform long-term assessment of generating capacities and ensure those capacities, Elering, together with other responsible ministries and the Competition Authority, will have to develop a security of supply standard and market mechanisms for a system services needed for the operating in the Continental European frequency area. The impact of market disruptions will have to be reduced on the European electricity market, and mechanisms for ensuring security of supply to vital and general interest services in Estonia will have to be improved as well.

Read the latest Elering Security of Supply Report (in Estonian language) and the extract (in English)