1000 MW Production Capacity Can Ensure Security of Supply Through the Interaction of Connections and Production

Based on the current state of the regional electricity market, security of supply would be ensured to the consumers through the interaction of connections and local production even in case of the most complicated failures of the electricity system if Estonia can provide approximately 1000 MW of available domestic production capacity.

According to the recent security of supply report published by Elering, Estonia has sufficient domestic electricity production capacities to ensure peak consumption until 2023. If we add connections inside the European Union to the local production capacities, security of supply can be ensured until 2030. “The connections permit us to leave unbuilt some power stations that are infeasible for a small electricity market but would be necessary to ensure the security of supply. From the point of view of security of supply, the availability of emergency capacities, including the completion of the Kiisa emergency reserve power plant, will make external connections just as secure as production in Estonia,” explained Taavi Veskimägi, Chairman of the Management Board of Elering.

The current development plan of electricity management requires that local production capacities exceed peak consumption by 10 per cent. “If the same requirement remains in force in the future, it would add approximately six euros to the price of every consumed megawatt-hour after 2024,“ said Veskimägi.

The fresh report predicts a 1.2 per cent growth of electricity consumption in the coming decades, compared to the previous estimation of 2.4 per cent. The decrease in expected growth results from the presumed cool down in general economic growth and the sector-based assessment of expected growth. Peak electricity consumption is increasing slower than total consumption and will reach approximately 1700 MW in 2030 according to Elering’s assessment.

Aside from the integration of the Baltic and Nordic markets, another major line of development in electricity management is connecting the Baltic countries to the synchronous grid of Continental Europe. Taking account of the present geopolitical situation, the preparations for switching synchronous grids can be accelerated to ensure a switch by 2025. The preparations for switching synchronous grids are an evolutionary process and relevant investments would have to be made even in case the Baltic countries remained a part of the Russian joint energy system.

Major investments needed in Estonia for the synchronous grid switch include the establishment of a third connection between Estonia and Latvia and the construction of a converter plant in Narva which would enable controlling energy flows between Estonia and Russia.

Estonian domestic electricity network also demands attention, as several transfer lines are reaching the end of their life. Along with the renovation, the network will have to be optimised to reflect the changes in consumption loads. “We are facing the fact that network is located in one place, the consumers in another,“ Veskimägi said. For example, the electricity supply of Tallinn, the main consumption centre of Estonia, must be improved. “While Tallinn currently receives power through three 330 kV main substations, then in the future we will probably need a fourth main substation near Tallinn,“ he explained. At the same time, the former centres of collective farms no longer need the kinds of powerful electricity networks as they used to decades ago. “Part of the electricity network must be metaphorically “rolled up” in these places and replaced with lower voltage lines in the future“.

The Elering security of supply report is available here.