Elering: Studies indicate Estonia’s security of supply is guaranteed up to 2030

Elering’s CEO Taavi Veskimägi says that a study on the adequacy of the European electricity system and studies commissioned and carried out by Elering based on various methodologies both show that the security of supply of electricity to Estonian consumers will be ensured until 2030. Based on current knowledge, there would be no justification for establishing additional charges similar to the renewable energy charge for paying subsidies to power producers.

Based on analysis of pan-European data, by 2030 Europe will have over 800 gigawatts in secure generating capacity. At the same time, peak demand in winter will be less than 700 gigawatts. Europe has generating capacity for supplying European consumers with electricity and Estonia has close to 2500 MW of international connections, compared to Estonian peak demand of about 1700 MW. Elering’s operating reliability has been exemplary over the last decade – about 99.9 per cent, which gives assurance that electricity will continue to be reliably transmitted to bigger population centres.

The analysis conducted by all of Europe’s TSOs found that Estonia could see a situation where demand is not covered by market-based production for an average of 0.8 hours and 0.14 gigawatt-hours per year. This is much less than Estonia’s recommended reliability standard of 9 hours, in which case a partial inability to meet demand on the open market would be cheaper for society than building new generating capacities.

A study commissioned by Elering from the Tallinn University of Technology showed that the potential  for demand side response ranges from 200-400 megawatts depending on the season, which is many times greater than the flexibility necessary for achieving a balance between supply and demand in every hour of system operation.

“Along with system adequacy, we are also looking at crisis scenarios, of which the most realistic one would be if the Baltics were to be cut off from Russia and switch over to island mode. For such a situation, we need 1000 megawatts of guaranteed generating capacity for Estonia to operate the system reliably in potential crises along with our Latvian and Lithuanian colleagues. On the basis of data from Estonian electricity producers, Estonia will continually have such a quantity in 2030,” said Veskimägi.

Besides adequacy of production and cross-border connection capacities, Elering’s analysis of security of supply is also based on adequacy of the electricity transmission network, the operating reliability of the grid and the state of cybersecurity. In the last decade, Elering has developed the Estonian transmission system with great intensity and up to the end of 2025, the focus of development of the electricity system lies on desynchronization from the Russian system and joining the continental European system. Elering will invest nearly 300 million euros into these projects without raising network charges. The number of kilometres of lines in the Estonian power grid may decrease by around 800 km as a result of the synchronization and other network development projects.

To ensure security of supply, Veskimägi says wind farms have a growing role, due to which another important priority besides synchronization is the development of an offshore network in the Baltic sea. Such a network will add connections with other countries and also make it possible for offshore power plants to join the grid.

Elering is an independent electricity and gas transmission system operator, primarily tasked with ensuring quality energy supply to Estonian consumers. Each year, Elering prepares a report on the security of supply. This year’s report can be found on Elering’s website.