For the Coming Winter Estonian Domestic Consumption is Covered by Production

The latest production adequacy report from Elering, the Estonian TSO, considers that the demand of Estonian electricity consumers will be covered by domestic production this winter in both ordinary and extreme weather conditions, and that there will be electricity left over to sell to neighbouring countries.

Elering considers that the information from producers and the planned developments in the grid show that the adequacy of domestic electricity production is ensured for the next decade until 2021.

Electricity consumption will continue to rise and will pass 10 TWh by 2020. It is expected that peak consumption this winter will be slightly higher than it was last year when it was 1517 MW, and will be around 1600 MW.

At present there are 3132 MW of current proposals for connection to the grid that have been issued by Elering, with both grid connection contracts and grid connection proposals, most of which are for wind parks. If these grid connection contracts and grid connection proposals are added to existing production facilities, the total of planned capacity reaches around 5600 MW. This is over three times more than the maximum expected consumption in the coming year of 1600 MW.

Taavi Veskimägi, the CEO of Elering said that the current situation, where some producers are using their connection contracts to reserve a large share of grid transmission capacity even though it is clear in many cases that the production capacity will not actually be built, is harmful for development and competition in electricity production. “The purely fictitious projects that producers have dreamed up make it uneconomical for new producers and facilities to connect to the electricity system and hinders the development of electricity production in Estonia. Those who suffer most because of this are projects for small CHP stations across Estonia, because the costs of grid reinforcement that accompany connection are too high all across Estonia,” he explained.

The largest change in the information given by producers since the production adequacy report of November 2010 was the planned production capacity after 2015 submitted by Eesti Energia, following the mitigatory measures introduced in the new Industrial Emissions Directive since 7 January 2011, which will allow the Narva power plants to use 636 MW of production capacity for limited periods on top of their capacity in permanent use between 2016 and 2023. Also important was the decision to build a new 274-MW capacity oil-shale fired generating unit.

The last year has seen production capacity added at Aulepa wind park (9 MW), Viru Keemia Grup's Põhja power plant (28 MW) and the two wind parks in Aseri and Narva that are planned to be connected to the grid by the end of the year.

In 2010, 8 TWh of electricity were consumed in Estonia, including network losses. On 1 September 2011 there was 2510 MW of installed generating capacity in the Estonian electricity system, of which 1870 MW will be available to use this winter.

Elering produces a report annually on 1 November on the adequacy of electricity generation at the start of winter, giving an assessment of Estonian electricity production at that moment and in the future.

The production adequacy report on the amount of production capacity needed to meet the consumption demand of the Estonian electricity system can be found here (only in Estonian).